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Cip V's avatar

My favourite part of the podcast was when David challenged the idea that we can know probabilities of certain events occurring when we make decisions & your response that these expected value / probabilistic calculations have to occur "under the hood" and we can improve our decisions by making the probabilities transparent.

This made me realise I fundamentally disagree with you on how minds work. I am very much in the camp of David Deutsch (& Karl Popper) who argues that knowledge (& decisions based on it) does not grow incrementally in probabilistic terms based on updated priors (Bayes) but by conjecture and criticism in which we take guesses and refute them or accept them as the best explanation available (Deutsch/Popper).

I would love to hear you debate this with someone like David Deutsch or Brett Hall, a guy who is promoting David's ideas & has talked and written extensively on the problems with Bayesian knowledge.

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