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The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl is my current read. I can’t claim to understand it all, but he explains how complicated interactions can be explored by diagramming them and calculating probabilities. At its most extreme, the methods offer the equivalent of a randomized control trial with just the data …
The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl is my current read. I can’t claim to understand it all, but he explains how complicated interactions can be explored by diagramming them and calculating probabilities. At its most extreme, the methods offer the equivalent of a randomized control trial with just the data you happen to have on hand. The math and the concepts are just on the edge of my understanding, but I hope they will add to your insights into rational decision making.
Part of the topic of the next book I am considering! Always partition your data to create your own control group. Highly recommend that book as well.