In an uncertain environment any decision will normally have to go beyond the facts (the known) and there has to be management of that element of uncertainty. Whether we like it or not, to some degree, ‘feelings’ about the uncertainty will have a part in the process. It would be stupid for a person who has considerable experience of an e…
In an uncertain environment any decision will normally have to go beyond the facts (the known) and there has to be management of that element of uncertainty. Whether we like it or not, to some degree, ‘feelings’ about the uncertainty will have a part in the process. It would be stupid for a person who has considerable experience of an environment not to use those feelings – it could be called judgement – in that ‘it looks right and feels right’ will normally beat it ‘looks right but feels wrong ’ or 'just looks right'? { Edit - PS In terms of the Monty Hall the 'look' is the choice which seems to have improved from 1 in 2 to 50-50 and ,as it stands now, actually is. But is the problem really statistical? Patrick Veitch (a noted British punter on horse racing) suggests the problem is actually behavioural because Monty Hall has shown you the goat and also knows what is behind the other doors. If you do not actually read between the lines then you would surely have some feeling about your original choice being wrong (even though you may stick with it for other reasons - it woud fall into the 'looks good- feels bad' category). }
The thing about feelings, and I agree they are inputs into any decision, is that feelings are generally left unexamined. They are inputs so make those gut feelings explicit so that you can interrogate them. Otherwise you may never figure out it is a mistake not to switch doors.
Thanks Annie - I agree and they have to be part of the decison process and handled as carefully as the data, logic and beliefs that go into making choices. Enjoying this open forum, so much to take in.
In an uncertain environment any decision will normally have to go beyond the facts (the known) and there has to be management of that element of uncertainty. Whether we like it or not, to some degree, ‘feelings’ about the uncertainty will have a part in the process. It would be stupid for a person who has considerable experience of an environment not to use those feelings – it could be called judgement – in that ‘it looks right and feels right’ will normally beat it ‘looks right but feels wrong ’ or 'just looks right'? { Edit - PS In terms of the Monty Hall the 'look' is the choice which seems to have improved from 1 in 2 to 50-50 and ,as it stands now, actually is. But is the problem really statistical? Patrick Veitch (a noted British punter on horse racing) suggests the problem is actually behavioural because Monty Hall has shown you the goat and also knows what is behind the other doors. If you do not actually read between the lines then you would surely have some feeling about your original choice being wrong (even though you may stick with it for other reasons - it woud fall into the 'looks good- feels bad' category). }
The thing about feelings, and I agree they are inputs into any decision, is that feelings are generally left unexamined. They are inputs so make those gut feelings explicit so that you can interrogate them. Otherwise you may never figure out it is a mistake not to switch doors.
Thanks Annie - I agree and they have to be part of the decison process and handled as carefully as the data, logic and beliefs that go into making choices. Enjoying this open forum, so much to take in.