Share this comment
Hmm, I was initially thinking, like you, that the failure to switch was a hot cognition problem- because of the emotional attachment to the initial guess. But then I thought it might actually be a cold cognition problem because it is essentially a sunk cost bias. It certainly seems right that our hot cognition struggles badly with probab…
Hmm, I was initially thinking, like you, that the failure to switch was a hot cognition problem- because of the emotional attachment to the initial guess. But then I thought it might actually be a cold cognition problem because it is essentially a sunk cost bias. It certainly seems right that our hot cognition struggles badly with probabilities- I would extend that to weighing things in general (see sunk cost bias above for an example or how bad we are at perceiving exponential change.)
And by the way these pigeons are awesome! How cool is it that they congregate in ratio to the food. I wonder if there is any connection to the sensory or thought process that allows them to fly in unison or formation.
I believe the rules that allow them to fly in formation are local rules (what is the bird in front of me doing?). I wonder if it is a local rule that allows them to do these proportions as well.
I think more in terms of System 1 and System 2. Most bias is a system 1 issue although bias is an issue that influences more deliberative thought. The pigeons are obviously in system 1. They are just being reinforced for choosing to switch over time. Humans don't seem to learn from the reinforcement in the same way.